Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Mumbai infra development to unlock potential real estate supply of 12.63 m sqm (136 msf): Knight Frank

In their latest report, global real estate consultants, Knight Frank India estimates that Mumbai’s current transit infrastructure development is expected to unlock development potential of 12.63 million square meters (sqm) or 136 million square feet (msf). This was revealed in the latest report “India Urban Infrastructure Report 2020 – Special Focus on Mumbai Transport Infrastructure with Key Impact Markets”, which assesses the impact of the massive INR 1.8 trillion worth transport infrastructure (metro and road) projects currently underway in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

It is estimated that 246 kilometres (km) of metro lines and 68 km of road projects are under various stages of construction in the MMR.  While some of these projects would be operational in the next 3 years and will have an immediate impact on the neighbouring real estate, other projects are expected to complete over the next 4-8 year period.

Some of the immediate real estate development potential are as below:

·         In the office markets of Goregaon West – Malad West, Goregaon East and Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) an estimated office space supply upwards of 1.11 m sqm (12 msf) , 0.92 m sqm (10 msf) and 0.65 m sqm (7 msf), respectively is estimated. This potential new supply is more than half the office stock currently existing in these locations. In addition to this residential and office supply upwards of 1.67m sqm (18 msf) can come up in the FCI warehouses of Borivali, provided Government decides to monetise the land parcels. These 4 locations would benefit from enhanced connectivity and reduction in travel time offered by metro line 2 (Dahisar-Andheri-Mandale), metro line 7 (Dahishar-Andheri East) and metro line 3 (Colaba-Bandra-SEEPZ). Some of these markets like the Goregaon West – Malad West belt and BKC were lacking MRTS connectivity. During peak hours, it takes half an hour to reach these business districts from the highway access point or the nearest railway station. Once the projects are operational, one can traverse almost half the metro corridor in that duration. Up to 75% reduction in travel time can be achieved through these projects benefiting 3 million commuters who are expected to use these 3 metro lines every day.

·         Wadala Truck Terminus (WTT) has been brought under the ambit of MMRDA which intends to develop the location on the lines of BKC. Around 4.6m sqm (50 msf) of office and residential supply can be expected in this region if the FSI of 4. The metro lines 2 and 4 which are the longest (42 km) and the second longest (35 km), metro lines in the city will pass through this region and propel real estate traction in this region. The metro line 2 will connect it with densely populated markets of western suburbs and the metro line 4 will connect it with densely populated markets of central suburbs all the way up to the Thane-Kasarvadavli belt. Further, metro line 11 (Wadala-CSMT) will boost connectivity of this region with South Mumbai all the way up to CSMT. Wadala is located at the heart of MMR and enjoys good road connectivity to various parts of the city through Eastern Express Highway, Eastern Freeway and Sion-Panvel highway. The metro will further boost connectivity and access to this region leading to greater real estate traction.

·         Jogeshwari – Vikhroli Link Road (JVLR) is an important arterial road providing east-west connectivity in the city. The metro line developments in this region will lead to office space development in the SEEPZ-Powai belt and near Mahakali Caves metro station, which can witness office space supply upwards of 1.8 m sqm (20 msf) and 0.65m sqm (07 msf), respectively. This is greater than the existing office stock in these markets. In addition, the vacant land parcels near Kanjurmarg can witness office and residential supply upwards of 1.11 m sqm (12 msf). There are many established residential and office catchments along the route which lack MRTS connectivity. As it is an arterial road, the vehicular traffic on this road throughout the day is high. The metro line 6 which is expected to have a daily ridership of 400,000 will bring in MRTS connectivity along JVLR.

·         While many of these upcoming infrastructure projects are lagging real estate development in MMR, there are a few which would precede real estate development in their region. The metro line 12 (Kalyan-Taloja) is a case in point where the project would be passing through undeveloped regions. The belt between Sonarpada metro station and Pisarve metro station along metro line 12 would be developed on the lines of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) jointly by MMRDA and CIDCO. The metro line is expected to have a daily ridership of 192,420 commuters.

·         Another example of infrastructure development leading to development of a particular region is Chirle and Kasarvadavali-Gaimukh belt (Thane). Presently, these locations are located at isolated parts of MMR which are difficult to access. Once the trans harbour link (Sewri-Nhava Sheva) and the metro line 4 (Thane-Wadala) and metro line 10 (Thane-Mira Road) are ready, these locations would get connected to Mumbai and it would lead to rapid real estate development in these markets. The trans harbour link is expected to cater to 100,000 vehicle each day and the two metro lines are expected to carry over 1.2 million passengers every day in the near future. The travel time to Chirle from South Mumbai would reduce to 20-25 minutes once the trans harbour link is ready.
“Infrastructure development and connectivity to employment hubs of the city play a crucial role in determining the fortunes of a real estate market. While most infrastructure projects in Mumbai are playing catch-up with real estate development, the scale of upcoming transit-oriented projects across the MMR will open up possibilities for heightened real estate participation,” said Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India.

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